Gee, I don't know. Actually, I'm not sure WHY there has been relative peace recently. I guess since the USSR collapsed, the last ideological/nationalistic divide within the developed world disappeared. Today if you suggested to a German, Russian, Japanese or American youth to go to war with one of the others, they would probably say "uuuuuuuuuuuuuhhhmm... why?" Why indeed. If there isn't a meaningful divide now, why was there ever? Now there is a great ideological divide between the west and the Islamic world, but unlike earlier divides, the balance of power is disproportionate.

It just occurred to me that in the second half of last century, there has been a shift in power from aristocrats or generally powerful politicians to corporations. Governments used to rule by force. Corporations now rule by trade, so they've less incentive to start wars I guess? They also have less ideological influence on the people.

I may be wrong, and even if I'm not, these are just proximate explanations, they don't go to the ultimate reasons. What do you think? Why do you suggest that there will be more wars soon? And anyway, hasn't your part of the world experienced most of the wars in the last few decades?

There is a small group of people who could make the argument that with growth and economic prosperity, the likelihood of conflict reduces. We could also call this abundance . When resources reduce, then people have to make a bigger effort for them, and when survival is the only goal, then conflict will surely arise.

There has been a shift in power away from individuals, but when corporations hold so much power, people don't know who to blame, then we just see protests and riots, we see conspiracy theorists gain bigger following in times of crisis, we see people resorting to extremist attitudes once more (neo-nazi movement in greece for example). My point here is that the great battle for resources is about to begin once more, because we dont have abundance any more. (arctic oil, which all the major powers are jostling for)

To be clear, I would have to define war as conflict between different nations or states. How many countries in my region go to war with each other? My country, for example, has never, in its entire history, been at war. Neither has Tanzania, and the countries further south. What you see as war is sectarian violence, caused by historic injustices (congo, for example). I could even go as far as saying that if it wasnt for western interference(supplying arms and tanks in particular) , these wars wouldnt go on for this long, would they? But thats not my argument, at least not today :-) .

If you look at war on the scale of what has happened in other parts of the world(egypt-israel, iran-iraq, balkan war, and so may others) for example, we have never seen anything like that, short of the struggle for independence.

In that case, will the next wars be fought against/among corporations, or do these institutions collapse in the face of conflict?

What "peace" are you folks talking about, exactly? I wouldn't say that there was much in the way of peace in Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, South Sudan, and places like Pakistan, Yemen, Mali, Somalia, Palestine, etc.

What peace? There are conflicts all around the globe! Mali, Syria, Iraq, Palestine...

Take a look at Steven Pinker's hypothesis in 'The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.' It's not the only answer, but it's certainly a cogent and well-argued assertion that peace really is in ascendence, at least compared to humanity's past. Note that he argues, in part, that we notice violence more in present times because of an 'accessibility bias.'

Off the top of my head, I believe that corporations are willing to wage war, but that said wars would be of a smaller scale, likely more insidious nature (e.g., Freeport McMoran's alleged violence in Indonesia copper mines).

In agreement with mingenbache, I believe that further resource scarcity is causing and will cause further instability and violence. It saddens and scares me, but I suppose it is basic animal instinct to become violent when feeling threatened.

Fascinating question, though.

This planet will never be at peace, not until we try to better ourselves as persons, rather than blaming others and our surroundings for our misfortunes.

I don't know that we are in a period of peace. I would argue that poverty in itself is a form of violence.

the growing population is a huge problem, for sure

No Brasil está acontecendo grandes manisfestações neste momento